I agree with the Chief, contra Wigderson, that if this were to happen it would not be as important as it was in Virginia. I wonder if the dropoff will be as steep as some assume.
Why's that? Simple. If we're talking the African American vote in Wisconsin, for all intents and purposes we're talking about Milwaukee. And there are any number of Milwaukee politicians who will be jockeying for Barrett's City Hall job should he be elected governor. Said pols are likely mindful that the mayor job is likely Barrett's for as long as he wants it -- or if he's elected to a bigger gig.
Suffice it to say these pols are going to be highly motivated to activate their supporters and networks to get out the vote. They're going to want to position themselves as the guy (or gal) that put Barrett over the top.
Electing Tom Barrett as governor of Wisconsin is the first, necessary step to getting the first elected African-American mayor of Milwaukee. True, that's not as powerful as the Obama effect. But it's still a strong motivator nonetheless. Do I expect African-American turnout to drop? Sure. But I wouldn't bet on a precipitous decline.