Brew City Brawler

Does GAB think GAB's Voter ID ad campaign will be ineffective?

Why say that about the Government Accountability Board's plan to spend $436,100 on a radio, billboard, transit, online, print and  campaign to educate voters about Scott Walker's confusing and contested Voter ID bill? 

Because in July the GAB was saying an effective campaign that included television advertising would cost more than twice that (page 2):

In order to conduct a campaign that also includes television advertisements, staff was informed that a budget of $892,000 would be required, and would generate approximately 117 million impressions. Board staff is not recommending inclusion of paid television advertising for budgetary reasons.

Then as now the budget was $436,100 ($64,000, or 13% less than what the GAB said was necessary). It included the previously mentioned media without TV, and was expected to generate more than 70 million impressions.

How many impressions will this new campaign, as constituted, generate, particularly if the TV ads are running during "unsold" (read, widely unwatched) times of the day (p. 23)? One also has to wonder how the campaign is weighted toward southeastern Wisconsin, where the bulk of people affected by the changes in Voter ID reside.

States that implement voter ID laws are required to engage in substantial education efforts about the changes. Given the GOP's apparent desire to make obtaining a voter ID complicated at every step of the way, one has to wonder at their commitment to that legal obligation.

Also, the GAB has said it may need an additional $250,000 for advertising, depending when the recall elections fall. Will the Republicans let that fly?

 

 

 

Can't wait for 2012

In a world where weepy libs are all doomy-gloomy, it's heartening to read some red meat served up by Subcomandante Markos at the Great Orange Satan.

I'm less interested in talking about the ways the administration screwed up, than in what they're going to do about it in preparation of 2012. First thing's first -- stop bashing the base, or the professional left, or whatever liberal boogeymen pisses them off. Fact is, people who fall in those disaffected categories -- the young, blacks, Latinos -- don't read blogs, or watch Keith Olbermann, or read Firedoglake. But they are losing their jobs and their homes, and they see Wall Street get all manners of bailouts without any of it trickling down to them. That has killed us. Make their lives better, or (since nothing will happen with Boehner in the House) at least fight to make their lives better. ...

The administration needs to stop pretending they're going to woo the Right, and start looking at their reelection battle the way Bush saw his -- as a time to mobilize the base and get them engaged in an epic war. Luckily, they won't have to deal with the Beltway Blowhards screaming about "bipartisanship", since that's no longer operative in a GOP-led House. The media only cares about bipartisanship when the Democrats have both the White House and Congress.

Obama needs to fire Tim Kaine at the DNC. He's been useless. His political team also needs to provide an honest assessment of OFA's effectiveness, given its inability to get Obama's most rabid young supporters to the polls. Heck, why not bring back Howard Dean to give us a DNC that many activists and state parties can believe in again and once again work towards a national 50-state party? Tim Kaine is yet another Blue Dog-style Democrat of the kind that got decimated last night. We don't need more of that polluting our party.

It's going to be a tough slog in the next two years, but as we learned yesterday, two years is a political eternity and everything can and will happen. The American people are schizophrenic -- exit polls found that:

1. Republicans are more unpopular than Democrats, yet they still voted GOP;

1.  35 percent believed Wall Street was to blame for the terrible economy, yet they still voted for the GOP. (56-42, to be exact).

1. 31 percent of voters wanted the new health care law expanded, yet 14 percent of them voted Republican. 30% want the law kept he same as it is now, and 30% of them voted Republican.

There's more, but you get the point. Democrats didn't lose because Republicans are suddenly popular, or people embrace their agenda. Democrats lost because people are angry and desperate and flailing and had to punish someone for the nation's economic woes. There's little there for the GOP to build on.

Now that's more like it!

And, it's small solace, but I have to admit to being encouraged by the fact the Dems were able to increase Milwaukee voter turnout by 2 points over '06 levels.  It wasn't enough, obviously, but not bad in a year where the base was less than fired up and facing a bad environment. And it suggests the potential for greater things in '12. 

In my recollection of 1994 (I was living in DC at the time), Dems were in shock, literally, for months and outplayed afterward. Hopefully, things have changed.