Brew City Brawler

Vukmir, Sensenbrenner wimps compared to Feingold

Leah Vukmir and Jim Sensenbrenner got their feelings hurt, called people who booed them thugs during a recent town hall in Wisconsin. You don't see Russ Feingold crying when he got booed at a Waukesha County meeting attended by a horde of Medicare recipients that wanted government not to touch their health care.

 

Republicans (and Christian Schneider) hope unemployment stays high

Theda Skocpol last week laid out how the Republicans are undercutting the economic recovery (and Folkbum did a nice job amplifying the point in these parts). The latest example: Thanks to Republican obstructionism, 1.3 million laid off workers (all of them clearly moochers) won't get their benefits reinstated before Congress goes into recess. Hundreds of thousands more face the threat with each passing week. Republicans, hilariously, claim they're concerned about adding to the debt, though the bond markets don't seem particularly punitive.

The hope, of course, is that a bad economy=bad results for Dems at the polls in November. The Republicans are rooting for high unemployment and economic pain to continue. How do we know that? Christian Schneider told us so last May!

Basically, the GOP has to secretly root for unemployment to stay high for another year, in hopes of regaining control and making fundamental systematic changes that help unemployed workers in the long run. It appears that endless fruitless bailouts have fatigued voters, which may form a good platform on which the GOP to rebound. 

The GOP is hoping short term pain brings long term gain. Let's hope it doesn't bloody Wisconsin's nose irreprably in the next twelve months.

Skocpol says Dems need to declare -- loudly -- what the Republicans are doing. The Brawler agrees. It also seems a bit bizarre that the House Republican leader wants to jack up the retirement age to keep funding the war in Afghanistan.

538 scorches Rasmussen's WI Senate poll

Predictably Charlie Sykes hawks a Rasmussen poll that shows nigh unknown Republican Senatorial candidate Ron Johnson within two points of Russ Feingold. Sykes goes so far to hail it as a "Ron Johnson bump." (IIRC his producer seemed to have some doubts about its validity -- as he should be, given the goal of Rasmussen's polling seems to be to drive Republican narratives and Rasmussen has a dismal track record in  Wisconsin).

The result is absurd because no one really knows anything about Johnson. And the Brawler suspects, based on George Will's mash note to Johnson, that the great GOP hope is too far right to win in Wisconsin. He's staunchly antiabortion rights, and appears eager to make an issue of that, and he supports Paul Ryan's Road Map to Ruin even as other Republicans recognize it's political poison. He'll be easy to paint as an extremist -- because he is an extremist.

Polling ace Nate Silver at 538 takes aim at the absurdity of the poll -- though notes that it is always possible Johnson could win -- and uses it to call out the problematic nature of Rasmussen's polling, noting Rasmussen accounts for an "outright majority" of weird polls. 

This afternoon, we got an interesting example of that. Rasmussen released a pollsuggesting that Ron Johnson, a businessman from Oshkosh, is running just 2 points behind Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold in Wisconsin's Senate race.

Have you ever heard of Ron Johnson? I hadn't until about three days ago. And it seems unlikely that many voters in the Badger State would have heard about him either. Johnson didn't announce his candidacy until two weeks ago. He's never held political office before. He runs a small business called Pacur Inc that has only 73 employees. He doesn't have a campaign website up. He doesn't have a Wikipedia page. Prior to this morning, he'd beenmentioned in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the state's largest paper, just three times over the past month.

And yet, according to Rasmussen, 68 percent of Wisconsin's "likely voters" have already formulated an opinion about Ron Johnson! And 94 percent of the state's voters know how they'd vote if he were to run against Russ Feingold!

Paul Ryan thinks Feingold seat could be an R pickup

Then again, Paul Ryan is pretty sure Obama would lose if the election were held today.

From RealClearPolitics:

RCP: President Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points last year, yet a poll released last week showed your friend Russ Feingold trailing a potential challenger, Tommy Thompson. What's your sense of where the voters are this year in Wisconsin, and is that a seat Republicans can pick up?

RYAN: It is. I think they're trending just like the rest of the country. That election was sort of an anomaly. John McCain pulled out about six weeks out, Obama stayed in. Bush lost the state by less than 1 percent both elections. So it's a tighter state than you think, and I believe that poll -- I think Tommy would beat Russ if he got in the race.

RCP: Did you ever consider taking on Feingold this year?

RYAN: I did think about the race. I just feel like where I am as the head of the Budget committee and senior member of the Ways and Means committee, I can do more for the cause and for my state and country -- at this time, where I am right now -- than if I were a junior senator and stuck in a Senate race right now.

RCP: What about in two years when Senator Herb Kohl comes up for re-election?

RYAN: Yeah, in the future I may run for something else in Wisconsin.

More Paul Ryan at Paul Ryan Watch.

Charlie Sykes: Russ Feingold has a "glass jaw"

Charlie Sykes periodically likes to adopt a tough guy pose. For instance, leading up to the 2008 presidential election he'd snarl that Barack Obama was a "sniveling, snot-nosed community organizer." Funny stuff for a guy who won't take calls from pols he criticizes and has to warm his car up for 20 minutes lest he catch a chill on his morning commute.

So really, it was not surprising -- but nevertheless still amusing -- that on Wednesday, during a segment discussing potential Republican challengers to Russ Feingold, that Charlie decided to share a secret: Russ Feingold has a glass jaw! He hasn't been tested. As evidence, Sykes pointed to the WMCS nonstory. Charlie has been whinging for months now that the Republicans need a credible challenger -- but it seems none want to take the bait. The latest Republican who could take Russ, per Sykes: Mike Huebsch.

Feingold's sunk

Why? Because potential candidates think they have a shot to unseat him:

Democrats say the number of Republican names still being floated about doesn't bode well for Wall; Republicans say the potentially crowded field is a sign that Feingold is vulnerable.

"It says more about Feingold than anything else," said Mark Jefferson, the executive director of the Wisconsin Republican Party. "(Potential candidates) are looking at Russ Feingold and saying 'The luster is gone. I have a shot.' "

The potential candidates -- Thompson, Kanavas, (oh and please God, Glenn Grothman) -- just haven't declared yet. That's how strong they think their shot is.

McIlheran: Even Ted Kanavas could beat Feingold!

In a Friday blog post celebrating Russ Feingold's purported "bad week," the Journal Sentinel's  McIlheran threatened that he would have "more on the subject of Feingold and his chances in my Sunday Journal Sentinel column."

And yes the Patrick McIlheran column on Sunday focuses on Feingold ... and naturally he leads with an interview with Ted Kanavas, the retiring wingnut Republican State Senator from Brookfield.

Ted Kanavas, who last week said that he won't run for re-election to the state Senate, also says he's not just clearing his schedule to run against U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold.

People have mentioned Kanavas, a Brookfield Republican, as a possibility to take on the 18-year incumbent Democrat. "Which is flattering," said Kanavas, though he swears it's a possibility he's spent no time contemplating.

McIlheran, showing the investigative skills he picked up in his two years as a reporter, prods and ultimately gets this:

"You never say never," said Kanavas. For now, the Legislature's in session. There will be time later to think about running for something bigger, he said, maybe once bigger names make up their minds.

The Brawler thinks it would be an excellent idea for the Republicans to run Ted Kanavas, as a Waukesha County wingnut clearly is the ideal candidate to take on Russ Feingold. And, per McIlheran, putting on the airs of the plugged in, some "people" agree. Who are they? I know Sykes has thrown his name out, as has Belling.  Kyle in Brookfield certainly hopes so. And it's worth noting that Cindy Kilkenny picked up signs of Ted kicking around -- OK, stumbling into -- this idea last year.

McIlheran: Feingold "down in the polls"

Russ Feingold has had a bad week, Patrick McIlheran intones.

Why?

Well, it appears he's down in a poll against Tommy! Only thing is, Tommy! isn't running and there's strong reason to think he won't. Oh, and the other thing is that the pollster who ran that poll has a track record ofunderestimating Democratic candidates. One other thing: He didn't check to see how Feingold polled against actual GOP Senate hopefuls Wall and Westlake. Wonder why that is.

Another reason he had a bad week? He apparently had to bail a few minutes into an interview on WMCS 1290 -- which Patrick McIlheran and other white conservatives, legitimized by James T. Harris claim is going to cost Feingold big in the black community. Only thing is, host Earl Ingram weighs in(apparently)  to say no harm, no foul.

So let's see: There's no question that Feingold would pulverize the two declared GOP Senate hopefuls. Evidence that Tommy! would win in a walk is dubious at best. And there's a noncontroversy about a radio interview. Most pols would kill for a bad week like that. McIlheran threatens that he will weigh in further on Feingold's problems in his Sunday column. Can't wait.

Pollster with bad WI track record sees Tommy! beating Feingold

Charlie Sykes was all aflutter over a new Rasmussen poll purporting to show that Tommy Thompson would beat Russ Feingold 47-43 in a Senate matchup in 2010. Maybe this will persuade Tommy! to take on Feingold, he enthused.

Indeed, given Rasmussen's Republican tilt one has to wonder if the purpose of the poll is to provide a realistic glimpse of Wisconsin's political environment or to prod Tommy! into running and providing a credible challenger to Feingold. As the Journal Sentinel notes, Rasmussen has plenty of critics -- to which he responds he has a reliable track record.

Which is true in some cases but it's demonstrably not true in Wisconsin -- a fact brought out in the Rasmussen press release:

In Wisconsin during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Obama defeating McCain by a 51% to 44% margin. Obama won 56% to 43%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen polling showed Kerry leading Bush in the state by a 48% to 46% margin. Kerry won 50% to 49%.

In 2006 Senator Herb Kohl was ahead of Robert Lorge 64% to 25% in the final Rasmussen poll. Kohl won 67% to 30%. In the Governor’s race that year, Rasmussen polling showed Jim Doyle leading Mark Green 48% to 44%. Doyle won 53% to 45%.

In 2004, the last time Feingold won re-election, Rasmussen polling showed Feingold leading 53% to 43%. Feingold won 55% to 44%.

Rasmussen predicted the winner in each race, to be sure, but it consistently underestimated -- sometimes dramatically -- the level of support for the Democratic candidate. The polls were good fodder for Republican morale -- remember predictions of Green beating Doyle in a squeaker? -- but not so good reflections of the landscape.

The Journal Sentinel quotes Feingold flack Trevor Miller:

""In order for this poll to be real you have to believe in three things that aren't," Miller said in an e-mail. "Tommy Thompson isn't in the Republican Party primary, he hasn't won it, and the election isn't today - it's ten months from now."

Rasmussen's track record in Wisconsin is another reason to believe the poll isn't real.

Just in!

Remember when Sykes told Tommy! he needed to know when to fold?

More at Pundit Nation.